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Archive

Overnight returns, daytime reversals, and anchoring bias

  • Donghoon Kim College of Business, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology
  • Jihoon Goh Pusan National University
This paper examines the dynamics between overnight noise traders and daytime arbitrageurs, measured by AB_NR from Akbas et al. (2022), which significantly differ in the predictability of future stock returns with the degree of nearness to 52-week high prices. We show that if stock prices are far from the 52-week highs, there is a perception of greater potential for price increases, leading to tremendous upward pressure on prices by overnight noise traders. As a result, daytime arbitrageurs overcorrect, leading to high AB_NR stocks being undervalued and offering the potential for increased future returns. On the other hand, for stocks near the 52-week highs, overnight noise traders perceive less room for growth and exert less pressure on prices. This results in less overcorrection by daytime arbitrageurs, leading to high AB_NR stocks being less undervalued and offering weaker return predictability. Our findings provide a fresh perspective on the psychological barrier of investors during intense tug-of-war.

  • Donghoon Kim
  • Jihoon Goh
This paper examines the dynamics between overnight noise traders and daytime arbitrageurs, measured by AB_NR from Akbas et al. (2022), which significantly differ in the predictability of future stock returns with the degree of nearness to 52-week high prices. We show that if stock prices are far from the 52-week highs, there is a perception of greater potential for price increases, leading to tremendous upward pressure on prices by overnight noise traders. As a result, daytime arbitrageurs overcorrect, leading to high AB_NR stocks being undervalued and offering the potential for increased future returns. On the other hand, for stocks near the 52-week highs, overnight noise traders perceive less room for growth and exert less pressure on prices. This results in less overcorrection by daytime arbitrageurs, leading to high AB_NR stocks being less undervalued and offering weaker return predictability. Our findings provide a fresh perspective on the psychological barrier of investors during intense tug-of-war.
Overnight return,Daytime reversal,Arbitrageurs,Anchoring bias,52-week high