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IPO 전후 애널리스트 리포트 발간과 주식시장 반응

  • 김현석 국민연금연구원 부연구위원(Deputy Research Fellow, National Pension Research Institute)
  • 최재윤 성균관대 경영대학 박사과정(Ph.D. Student, Sungkyunkwan University Business School)
  • 송교직 성균관대 경영대학 교수(Professor, Sungkyunkwan University Business School)
미국 시장에서는 기업공개(Initial Public Offering, IPO) 이후 40일까지 침묵기간 (Quiet period)이 적용되기 때문에 해당 기간 동안 신규상장 기업에 대한 애널리스트 리포트가 발간되지 않는다. 반면, 한국은 침묵기간 제도가 없기 때문에, 일부 IPO 기업에 대해 보통 매수(Buy) 추천과 함께 애널리스트 리포트가 발간되기도 한다. 본 연구는 2010~2020년 기간 동안 한국거래소(KRX) 유가증권시장과 코스닥시장에 신규 상장한 기업들을 대상으로, IPO 전후 애널리스트의 리포트 발간과 저가발행(또 는 초기수익률) 또는 장기수익률의 연관성을 분석하였다. 실증분석 결과, 애널리스트 의 리포트 발간과 함께 유가증권시장에 신규상장한 기업은 초기수익률이 낮은 반면, 코스닥시장 상장기업의 초기수익률은 별 차이가 없었다. 반면 애널리스트 리포트 발간 과 함께 상장한 기업은 두 시장 모두에서 1년간 주가수익률이 비교 기업에 비해 높게 나타났다. 이는 한국 주식시장에서 IPO 기업을 대상으로 애널리스트의 리포트 발간 활동은 경제적 이해관계로 인해 분석기업을 과대광고함으로써 시장효율성을 저해하 는 역기능을 하기보다는 시장참여자들에게 유용한 정보를 전달하여 시장효율성을 제 고시키는 순기능이 많다는 것을 시사한다.
기업공개,침묵기간,애널리스트 리포트,저가발행,주가수익률

Publication of Analyst Reports around the IPO Date and the Stock Market's Response

  • Hyunseok Kim
  • Jaeyoon Choi
  • Kyojik Song
Analysts process various information about firms to provide market participants with earnings forecasts and recommendations. There are both positive and negative views on the usefulness of analyst reports and investment recommendations. Liu et al. (1990) argue that analysts’ stock recommendations are valuable as investment information, as they find that stocks recommended as "buy" by analysts tend to yield positive excess returns, while stocks recommended as "sell" tend to yield negative excess returns. However, according to studies by Bhushan (1989), Irvine (2000), Brown et al. (2015), analysts face conflicts of interest such as the incentive to increase commissions for their affiliated brokerage firms or maintain close relationships with the management of companies. Due to these conflicts of interest, they suggest that the analysts’ recommendations are biased information. Accordingly, analysts can play a role in enhancing market efficiency by providing reports with high-quality information that helps reduce misvaluation of stock prices. However, due to economic conflicts of interest, the possibility remains that analysts might overestimate companies for personal gain, potentially misleading investors and increasing the misvaluation. IPO (Initial Public Offering) underpricing refers to the phenomenon where the offer price of newly issued shares is set lower than their fair value, resulting in the shares being underpriced. As a consequence, the stock price rises significantly higher than the offer price in the aftermarket, leading to substantial initial returns. Previous studies report that IPO stocks tend to exhibit abnormally high initial returns but experience lower returns in the long term (Ritter, 1991; Loughran and Ritter, 1995; Kim and Lee, 2012; Kim, 2016). In the U.S. stock market, a ‘quiet period’ is applied for firms preparing for IPO to protect investors (Bradley et al., 2003; Jia et al., 2019). IPO firms might have incentives to inflate future business prospects and earnings forecasts to obtain a higher valuation for their offer price. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has established the quiet period around the IPO date to prevent companies from providing predictive information related to firm valuation, such as sales, operating income, net income, that could influence the offer price and stock price. Unlike the U.S., the Korean stock market does not impose a quiet period on firms gearing up for an IPO. Consequently, it is possible to analyze the effect of analyst reports around the IPO date on stock returns using the Korean data. This study investigates the short-term and long-term returns of firms which analysts cover from the time of their IPOs compared to those that did not, among the newly listed firms on the Korea Stock Exchange during the period from 2010 to 2020. This research empirically examines whether the release of analysts’ reports for IPO firms play a role of providing useful information or playing a role of hype. We find that newly listed firms in the KOSPI (Korean Composite Stock Price Index) with analysts’ coverage tend to earn lower initial returns. And there is no significant relation between analyst coverage and initial returns for newly listed firms in the KOSDAQ (Korea Securities Dealers Automated Quotation). Furthermore, the release of analyst reports is also positively related to one-year excess returns over the industry benchmark. The results suggest that analyst coverage for IPO firms in the Korean stock market play positive roles of improving market efficiency by delivering useful information to market participants and reducing information asymmetry.
Initial public offering,Quiet period,Analyst report,IPO underpricing,Stock return