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Momentum in Korean corporate bond market




The momentum effect is the phenomenon that the higher the past return of the asset, the more persistent the high return. We can find the momentum effect in not only equity, but also several other asset classes and the U.S. In addition, it is found in various regions, and various kinds of momentum strategies are appearing. In particular, among other assets, recent studies have argued that momentum effects exist in the corporate bond market (Pospisil and Zhang, 2010; Jostova et al., 2013; Israel et al. 2017; Houweling and Zundert, 2017, Ho and Wang, 2018). However, empirical studies on the momentum phenomenon in Korea are mostly limited to stocks. Among other assets, although bonds have a large portion of the domestic financial market, studies on the existence of momentum in the bond market are still difficult to find in Korea. Our results are as follows. First, the higher the past return of the bond, the higher the future past return. In other words, we can verify the momentum effect. The momentum strategy with six months formation periods and six months holding periods shows an average return of 0.27% per month (3.26% per year). And the corporate bond momentum is not explained by the existing systematic risk factors for bonds and stocks (Fama and French, 1993, Carhart 1997). Thus, we cannot conclude that the observed momentum of corporate bonds is associated with compensation for systematic risk. The profitability of the momentum strategy is robust even when we control various characteristics such as duration and the age of bond. Second, the profitability of the bond momentum strategy is strong when the formation period and holding period were short. For example, the profitability of the momentum strategy was significant and high in the short-term period of 3 ~ 6 months formation and holding periods, while the profitability of the momentum strategy deteriorated in 9 ~ 12 months formation and holding periods. As such, the corporate bond momentum is mostly sustained in the short term. Third, the bond momentum strategy is profitable during the period that excluded the financial crisis and the economic expansion, while not during the financial crisis and the contraction. Fourth, the corporate bond momentum is strong in the low credit rating group. In other words, the higher the past return, the higher the future return in the group with the lower credit rating. Fifth, Low credit rating group, which show significant momentum effects, are mostly small and have low liquidity. From these results, we suggest that the momentum effect occurs at the lower credit level due to the gradual information diffusion hypothesis from Hong and Stein (1999). For example, it is found that the momentum is high in the small market capitalization, where private information is difficult to spread. Moreover, it is hard to interpret the information from the low credit rating firm. Finally, we cannot find the spillover between stock momentum and bond momentum found in previous studies (Gerbhart, Hvidkjaer, and Swaminathan, 2005). For example, no significant relationship is observed, such as a high future bond return for companies with high stock returns in the past. This study has academic and practical implications as follows. First, this study shows that there is a momentum phenomenon in other non-stock assets, especially, the Korean corporate bond. Many studies have focused on the momentum phenomenon in stock markets. Our results suggest that we need to research on the momentum phenomenon that can occur in various asset classes in Korea. Second, portfolio managers can use our findings as a bond investment strategy. In overall asset management industry in Korea, investments in corporate bonds are increasing, especially among institutional investors such as pension funds and insurance companies. Therefore, based on the results of this study, it is possible to establish and use the momentum strategy to obtain excess returns in the Korean bond market.
Momentum strategy,Corporate Bond,Gradual information diffusion,Spillover,Risk factor