An Analysis of KOSPI200 Index Option's Volatility Spread : Relationship to Exercise Price and Return Moments and Its Predictive Power
This paper investigates the effects of KOSPI200 spot's return moments on KOSPI200 option's volatility spread and tests whether the volatility spread has a predictive power on future index return categorically after constructing 5 categories based on exercise price. Evidence indicates that KOSPI200 spot's past return, historical volatility and skewness are significant and positive determinants of KOSPI200 option's volatility spread. The significant and positive regression coefficient of historical volatility is consistent with the explanation that KOSPI200 option traders shows risk-seeking behavior, and the significant and positive regression coefficient of historical skewness is consistent with the notion that hedge demand pressure increases demand for put options and preference for extreme profit increases demand for call options. Empirical results also suggest that the volatility spread has a predictive power on future index return. The predicative power lasts up to 2 weeks. Summarizing, this paper provides empirical results that KOSPI200 option's volatility spread is negative and the negativity differs categorically, also the volatility spread is affected by historical spot return moments and furthermore the volatility spread has predicative power to future index return and the power differs categorically.