The Lead-Lag Relationships between Oil Price and Russia Financial Market
Jae-Seung Baek
Myeonghoon Yeom
In this paper, we examine the lead/lag relationship between oil price and Russia financial market. After 2014, Russia currency values and Russia stock market had been decreasing, and it can be interpreted that the drop in oil prices regarded as a major cause in this study. The empirical results using Granger casuality test and VAR model are summarized as follows: First, international oil price have a significant positive effect on Russia stock market and Russia currency values. However the reverse relationship is not valid. Second, the Russia currency values have a significant positive effect on Russia stock market and the reverse relationship is not valid. These results are consistent with the view that there are lead-lag relationships between oil price and the expected rate of return in the Russia financial market. Our results suggest that the appreciation of financial share prices is attributable for the factors around the movements of oil prices and currency value in Russia.